I am forever baffled by folks in crypto. Are they uninformed or are they deceptive or are there different reasoning capabilities than the largely economic/mathematics-trained conventional asset analysts.

Leaving aside momentarily the inherent features of crypto, comparing an index comprised of a significantly diverse variety of assets to a single “asset” (if we allow that description) in the case of Bitcoin is just silly. If you’re going to make some statement about predictability of the S&P versus crypto, you would have to use Bitcoin versus an index. There are many crypto indices (eg., BBG Galaxy, Crypto20, etc.). I have no idea which one would compare in terms of attempting a PCA versus BTC, but the statements here nevertheless are meaningless.

If you look at stock analysts’ predictions of single name equities, they are typically very accurate, certainly out 3–6 months. But more importantly when talking about index or stock price prediction compared to something like Bitcoin, one can actually trace the reasons for a prediction: an equity is actually tied to something that has objective value in the economy: sales, cost controls, innovation, good/bad management, cash-on-hand, etc. In the case of BTC, there is nothing to point to to account for price movements. Even a national currency’s movements can be understood and explained on larger order movements tied to sovereign debt/expenditures levels, social stability, corruption levels, etc.

But let’s be clear: no crypto serves any useful economic purpose. It participates in no way in commerce. You cannot buy anything thing with it, except in a handful of novelty circumstances. Its primary demand is purely speculative (gambling) along with its primary use as a platform for illegitimate activity.

At some point, it may evolve into something that can be used to buy food, housing, cars, appliances, services, etc. But it’s hard to see how that can happen when the whole sector is populated by activists and promoters ignoring the below water part of this iceberg.